The 2024 United States presidential election has taken a dramatic turn with President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, significantly impacting Donald Trump’s chances of winning. As the election landscape continues to evolve, polling averages and prediction markets provide valuable insights into the shifting dynamics.
Current Polling Averages
According to 270toWin, the current polling average shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in several key states ¹. This shift in momentum is largely attributed to Biden’s withdrawal, which has altered the electoral map. The polling average methodology summarizes the average of the most recent polls from each source released within two weeks of the November 5 election [1).
Prediction Markets
Polymarket’s prediction market odds also indicate a decline in Trump’s chances ². The market odds are updated every four hours, providing a real-time snapshot of the election landscape. The Polymarket map uses colored gradients to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases [4).
Electoral Map
The 2024 electoral map is crucial in determining the outcome of the election. Seven states, worth 93 electoral votes, have been identified as battlegrounds ³. These states are Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump’s performance in these states will be pivotal in determining his chances of winning.
Key Factors
Several factors contribute to Trump’s decreased odds:
- Biden’s Withdrawal: President Biden’s withdrawal from the race has altered the electoral map, making it more challenging for Trump to secure key states ¹.
- Harris’s Momentum: Kamala Harris has gained momentum, leading Trump in several key states, including Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada ¹.
- Demographic Shifts: Changes in demographic trends, particularly among younger voters and minorities, may impact Trump’s chances ³.
Conclusion
While Trump’s odds of winning have decreased, the election is far from over. The next few weeks will be critical in determining the outcome. As polling averages and prediction markets continue to evolve, one thing is certain – the 2024 United States presidential election will be a nail-biter.
Stay up-to-date with the latest election news and analysis on 270toWin and Betfair Blog ¹ ³ ⁴.
trump’s odds of winning 2024 election decrease after biden withdraws
